The Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission is scheduled to vote Nov. 10-11 on a proposal to lower the existing cap on the reduction fishery's menhaden catch in the Chesapeake Bay by up to 50% and to spread the catch more evenly across the year. The commission could also substantially reduce the coastwide harvest limit and allot more of that catch to New England states.

At the center of the fight is Omega Protein, headquartered in Reedville, Virginia, on the Northern Neck. Its processing plant is the last East Coast survivor of a menhaden reduction industry that has dwindled since its peak in the 1950s. Omega partners with a fishing fleet owned by Ocean Harvesters that nets menhaden in the bay and up the coast as far as New Jersey.

Menhaden are sought after from Maine to the Carolinas as bait for crabs, lobsters and other fish, but the vast majority of the coastwide catch is "reduced" — cooked and pressed into fish oil and meal. The fish also feed larger fish, marine mammals and birds, including ospreys and striped bass, known locally as rockfish. The Chesapeake is a major breeding ground for both.

Concerns have mounted that menhaden scarcity is driving drastic declines in osprey reproduction in the bay and along the coast, and that it may be hindering the recovery of Atlantic striped bass from several years of overfishing. Biologists have found evidence of food stress in areas where menhaden have been a staple of the birds' diet. The issue intensified after Maryland officials reported plummeting menhaden catches among the state's bait fishermen.

The Chesapeake has been under a menhaden harvest cap since 2006, when the commission imposed it in response to fears that the growing bay harvest could cause a "localized depletion" of the fish. Officials called the cap precautionary until research could determine whether those fears were warranted. That research remains incomplete — federal and state funding finally came through this year to study the question — but the commission has kept the cap and reduced it twice since. The current bay ceiling stands at 51,000 metric tons.

More than 48,000 people weighed in earlier this fall on whether to curtail the bay harvest. The vast majority favored cutting it by 50%, the maximum under consideration.

Omega, Ocean Harvesters and their employees and supporters oppose any cuts, warning that hundreds of well-paying union jobs are at risk — jobs that have supported generations of Northern Neck families, including many African American fishermen. They argue it is premature to lower the bay cap until research can show their operation is depleting the Chesapeake's menhaden stock. Supporters of the cuts counter that precaution is warranted even amid uncertainty about the precise cause of the osprey and bait harvest declines.

Uncertainty also hangs over the coastwide catch, which has been limited since 2013. Four years ago the commission determined menhaden were not overfished and approved a 20% increase in the allowable harvest. But a reassessment in 2025 found that the commission's population model had overestimated menhaden abundance by about a third. The commission's experts warned that harvests would need to be curtailed to leave enough fish for migratory striped bass to feed on.

The experts said a 54% cut in the coastwide harvest would provide a 50-50 chance of meeting the striped bass rebuilding target by 2029. Ocean Harvesters and Maine lobster harvesters, who use menhaden for bait, warned of severe economic consequences. The commission opted for a 20% reduction for 2026 and put off additional limits until this month's meeting.

Now the commission's experts project that a further 39% reduction in coastwide catch would be needed to have an even chance of meeting the striped bass recovery target. Recreational anglers and conservationists want managers to cut at least that much, with some calling for deeper reductions.

Mike Wilberg, a University of Maryland fisheries science professor, has challenged the need for further cuts, saying the 2025 reassessment that found menhaden less abundant contained "fatal flaws" in its analysis.

New England fishing interests, meanwhile, want a larger share of the overall menhaden catch, which the commission allocates by state. "As Atlantic herring landings have declined, Maine's menhaden landings have increased, and menhaden have become a critically important source of fresh bait for Maine's lobster fleet," said Patrice McCarron, executive director of the Maine Lobsterman's Association.

Any substantial reallocation would likely affect Omega, since Virginia is currently allotted 75% of the coastwide menhaden quota, and 90% of that goes to the reduction fishery.

The decisions this week will shape not only the fortunes of the Reedville plant and its fleet but also the health of a food web that supports ospreys, striped bass and the bay's recreational fishing economy.