For the first time in COP history, the summit is led by two presidencies rather than one. In June, the Turkish and Australian presidencies unveiled three priorities: a target to raise the share of final energy demand met by electricity from just over 20% today to 35% by 2035; halving the growth of global waste by 2035; and a resilient cities goal to cut energy consumption intensity in buildings by at least 25% by 2035.

The electrification target, quickly dubbed "35-by-35," has drawn by far the most attention. Electrification means converting energy-consuming devices, systems and sectors from non-electric fuels to electricity—and in places without utility access, installing electric power for the first time. Supporters frame it as a means to expand energy access, lower costs and cut greenhouse gas emissions, with ripple effects on health care, data centers and the AI-driven economy.

But the proposal has not won universal buy-in. Technical climate mitigation advocates see renewable electric generation displacing fossil fuels. Skeptics counter that the pledge says nothing about the fuel used in generation, meaning a massive electric buildout could simply lead to more coal and gas burning.

The International Energy Agency weighed in with a special report in September 2026. Under current policy settings, the IEA found, growth in low-emissions electricity is just sufficient to meet all additional demand in aggregate, leading to modest declines in power-sector emissions. But reaching net zero by 2050 would require far faster expansion: annual solar additions doubling to more than 1,200 gigawatts by 2035, wind additions rising two-and-a-half times to around 400 gigawatts, and a strong nuclear comeback.

The presidencies are now seeking national endorsements of the 35-by-35 pledge and hope to fold it into the final COP decision text. So far, few nations have signed on, with many holding out for explicit language that new generation must come from non-fossil sources.

The United States is not participating officially in COP31, making a U.S. signature unlikely. But the American trajectory is a cautionary tale for delegates here. Before Congress enacted HR1, which gutted the energy initiatives in the Inflation Reduction Act, the U.S. was on track for significant new renewable generation—and the IRA had targeted resources to make renewable energy available to all Americans, not just the affluent.

The IEA's 2025 Renewables report quantified the damage. Globally, the agency lowered its renewable growth forecast for 2025-2030 by 5% compared with the prior year, a reduction of 248 gigawatts of expected capacity. Solar PV accounted for over 70% of the absolute reduction, while offshore wind saw the largest relative decline at 27%. The U.S. forecast was revised down by almost 50% across all technologies except geothermal, reflecting the earlier-than-expected phase-out of investment and production tax credits, new "foreign entities of concern" restrictions, and an executive order suspending offshore wind leasing and restricting permits for onshore wind and solar on federal land. Wind was hit hardest, with offshore and onshore capacity growth revised down by almost 60%, or 57 gigawatts, while solar PV was revised down by almost 40%.

The picture is complex: renewable growth is still expected to trend upward over the next decade, but shifts in national politics could jeopardize that progress. Electrification is key to achieving net zero by 2050—but only if the electricity is carbon-free.

For American climate advocates, the message from Antalya is clear: stay engaged. With a new Congress arriving in January, advocates say they will need to offer wisdom and support to ensure the U.S. leads on clean, affordable electrification rather than ceding the agenda to others.