Politics
More than 1 million Georgians have voted early, with turnout rising in both parties’ strongholds
Early voting in Georgia is slightly ahead of the pace set during the 2022 midterms, and participation is currently higher in areas that backed Kamala Harris in 2024. But rising turnout in conservative counties underscores why early ballot totals alone cannot predict the Nov. 3 results.
More than 1 million Georgians have cast ballots ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm election, with early participation running slightly ahead of the same point in 2022 and offering both parties clues — but no firm forecast — about the electorate.
So far, about 400,000 early voters live in areas that strongly supported Democrat Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, compared with roughly 380,000 in communities that heavily backed President Donald Trump. About 21% of voters in the Harris-leaning areas have voted, versus 16% in deep-red communities, according to an analysis of early voting patterns.
The figures point to stronger early participation in Democratic-leaning parts of metro Atlanta and other areas, including Savannah, Macon and Augusta. But turnout has also climbed in Republican strongholds, including fast-growing Cherokee and Forsyth counties and parts of northwest Georgia. In Whitfield County, former President Trump rallied supporters in Dalton on Friday and urged them to “pretend” he is on the ballot.
Black voters account for about 35% of early ballots, according to the Georgia Votes tracking site. Women outnumber men by roughly 10 percentage points, a pattern that could benefit Democrats, who have had an advantage among women in recent elections.
The early totals matter in a state where the governor’s race and a U.S. Senate contest are among the contests drawing national attention. But they show who is voting, not how people are voting. Split-ticket voters could shape the results, so increased participation in a Republican area does not mean every ballot will go to a GOP candidate — just as high turnout in Democratic territory does not guarantee every vote will be Democratic.
The early electorate is also largely made up of people who regularly vote: about 95% of those who have cast ballots so far also voted in the 2024 presidential election. And a high early-vote total does not necessarily mean overall turnout will rise. Some voters may simply be casting their ballots sooner than they otherwise would.
The 2022 midterms offer a recent comparison. Republican Gov. Brian Kemp and Democratic U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock both won reelection that year, as turnout reached high levels. This year’s early participation may offer a first indication of voter engagement, but the final picture will depend on who turns out through Election Day — and how they vote.